Irish PM Leo Varadkar and Foreign Affairs Minister Simon Coveney are expected to offer to meet a DUP delegation this week. The penny is dropping in Dublin that despite Tony Blair’s assurances the British could be about to leave the EU on WTO terms. Despite all the public bluster the reality of the situation is shifting and the Irish government is getting more flexible and creative. To avoid the imposition of a hard border in Ireland the Irish press is reporting that Varadkar is privately telling opposition leaders that they may have to accept EU border checks being imposed on the continent in Calais and other EU entrepôt. There would have to be a fudge on the EU requirement for a hard external border – something that Juncker has already signalled would be acceptable. Whatever happens, deal or no deal, there will be no hard border on the island of Ireland.

Shocked opposition leaders were told by Varadkar that France could take the lead on border infrastructure that would essentially apply to Ireland and the UK “as one bloc” because to keep an open border on the island of Ireland checks would, in the event of no deal, have to be imposed on Irish, as well as British, exports to EU. The DUP will be happy with that. This will of course mean that Ireland will be very keen on a comprehensive UK-EU FTA being concluded quickly to avoid the ongoing need for those checks. Which is the rational outcome business wants…