Survation have done something interesting, they have polled 862 Tory councillors on their preference for the next Tory leader. Using a run-off single transferable vote method they looked into who would win. First preferences gave a close lead for Sajid Javid of 150 to 142.

After transferring votes Sajid sucks up the majority of third-placed Hunt’s votes and wins decisively. This is an interesting exercise that doesn’t exactly mirror the actual Tory election process which has MPs select two candidates to put before the wider Tory membership. What it does show is that in an open field the race would likely be between Johnson & Javid. The survey reinforces the findings of the ConservativeHome surveys that it should be a two-horse race. Whether Tory MPs agree is another matter…

Watch Survation’s explainer video here.