There is a lot of talk among Tory MPs that Number 10 now fears the number of letters of no confidence in Theresa May is close to reaching the 48 threshold. Several MPs have told Guido this morning that Downing Street has signalled it believes the number is approaching 48. Over the last 24 hours whips have asked MPs who they believe may have submitted letters to Graham Brady to withdraw them or risk putting Corbyn in Number 10. Some Tory Brexiteers are cautioning colleagues against putting letters in now, telling them to wait until after the summer recess as they believe they have a better chance of removing May then, when it becomes clear further concessions to the EU are being planned. A senior ERG MP tells Guido:

“While this is about change of policy, it’s obvious now that this won’t happen unless we have a change of leader. The PM and No10 appear completely tone deaf and on too many occasions have treated Brexiteers with utter contempt. 

But if 48 letters go in now, Theresa may well win a vote of confidence. What most sensible Tory MPs are doing is waiting until we get back from recess after summer.

“If Theresa hasn’t dramatically changed this dismal excuse for an offer by then, and worse still, concedes even further to the EU, then the letters go in and she is finished. MPs in Brexit-voting seats know they will have seriously let their constituents down if they deliver BRINO while pretending it’s what people voted for. It’s shameful.”

May is in the danger zone…