Every Brexiter MP and Cabinet minister should be thinking hard about Vote Leave chief Dominic Cummings’ assessment of how Brexit is going this morning. Here are the seven key truth bullets…

Number 10 has botched the Article 50 process and made no serious preparations to leave the EU:

“The government’s nominal policy, which it put in its manifesto and has repeated many times, is to leave the Single Market and Customs Union and the jurisdiction of the ECJ. This requires preparing to be a ‘third country’ for the purposes of EU law. It requires building all the infrastructure and facilities that are normal around the world to manage trade. This process should have started BEFORE triggering A50 but the government has irretrievably botched this. Having botched it, it could have partially recovered its blunder by starting to do it afterwards. No such action has been taken.

Whitehall’s real preparations are for the continuation of EU law and the jurisdiction of the ECJ. The expectation is that MPs will end up accepting the terrible agreement as voting it down would be to invite chaos. In short, the state has made no preparations to leave and plans to make no preparations to leave even after leaving.”

The government’s promises on Ireland have made the negotiation impossible:

“The Government promised in the December agreement to do a number of things that are logically, legally and practically incompatible including leaving the Single Market and Customs Union, avoiding ‘friction’ and changing nothing around the Irish border (as defined by the EU), and having no border in the Irish Sea.”

None of the customs options on the table cut it:

“All this contributes to current delusional arguments over supposed ‘models’ (hybrid/max fac etc) that even on their own terms cannot solve the problem of multiple incompatible promises. ‘Compromise proposals’ such as that from Boles which assume the existence of ‘third country’ planning are just more delusions.”

Brexiter Tories have chickened out of forcing May to pursue a proper Brexit:

“Eurosceptics are full of shit and threats they don’t deliver, they say in No10, and on this at least they have a point.”

The way things are going, Brexit is not going to mean Brexit:

“The Government effectively has no credible policy and the whole world knows it… It now thinks its survival requires surrender, it thinks that admitting this risks its survival, it thinks that the MPs can be bullshi*tted by clever drafting from officials, and that once Leave MPs and donors — you guys — are ordering your champagne in the autumn for your parties on 30 March 2019 you will balk at bringing down the Government when you finally have to face that you’ve been conned.”

That is only going to help Corbyn become PM:

“Ask yourselves: what happens when the country sees you’ve simultaneously a) ‘handed over tens of billions for fuck all’ as they’ll say in focus groups (which the UK had no liability to pay), b) failed to do anything about unskilled immigration, c) persecuted the high skilled immigrants, such as scientists, who the public wants you to be MORE welcoming to, and d) failed to deliver on the nation’s Number One priority — funding for the NHS which is about to have a very high profile anniversary? And what happens if May staggers to 30 March 2019 and, as Barwell is floating with some of you, they then dig in to fight the 2022 campaign?…  If you go into the 2022 campaign after five years of this and the contest is Tory promises versus Corbyn promises, you will be maximising the odds of Corbyn as PM.”

Brexiters have only themselves to blame:

“Yes it’s true that May, Hammond, Heywood and Robbins are Remain and have screwed it up but you’re deluded if you think you’ll be able to blame the debacle just on them. Whitehall is better at the blame game than you are, officials are completely dominant in this government, ministers have chosen to put Heywood/Robbins in charge, and YOU will get most of the blame from the public. The sooner you internalise these facts and face reality, the better for the country and you.”

Tory Brexiters have come to the conclusion that they should just lump it, accept the way things are going and plod on to a middling Brexit. MPs won’t like it, but Cummings is right…