Anyone following the arguments will have heard the Remainers’ refrain that the UK has gone from having the fastest GDP growth in the G7 to the slowest GDP growth in the G7. That has never rung true to Guido. The latest IMF forecast – which should still be treated with scepticism – puts UK GDP smack bang in the middle of the G7 growth table. Behind Canada, the US and Germany, ahead of France, Italy and Japan for 2017. Treat this with scepticism because the IMF predicted the UK would be in the depths of a recession by now…

Other forecasts are even better; the German Council of Economic Experts predicts German GDP growth will be 2% in 2017 and Britain’s equivalent the OBR predicts UK GDP growth will also be 2%. Hardly the hit you read about in the FT…

GDP forecasts are unreliable approximations, it is fair to say the UK economy is not racing away, it is nevertheless growing and the interest rate rise from the Bank of England is a sign that the MPC think growth is far from weak. Phil Hammond’s budget needs to drive home good economic news to boost confidence…