On the weekend there was speculation that Theresa May would go in September 2019 after delivering Brexit in the spring and allowing an orderly Tory leadership succession campaign over that summer. In that context you can see why she said yesterday in Japan “I’m in this for the long term because there’s a long-term challenge for the United Kingdom”. Asked if she wanted to fight the next election, she said: “Yes.” Bear in mind that even a few months before the election she was telling us there would be no snap election.

In reality there is little to no chance she will lead the Tories in another general election. There is no appetite for it among Tory MPs or activists who all think she led a disastrous campaign, that she is wooden and robotic without any ability to empathise with voters. The only reason she is still leader is because nobody wants her job right now and Tory MPs fear a change of leader would risk the public wanting another general election before they have figured out how to deal with the Corbyn menace. There is the small matter of Labour also being ahead in the polls…

If she had given a date it would only kick off more speculation and more leadership jostling from Tory wannabees. Punters favour that she goes in the summer of 2019, barring mishap that seems about right. Guido is not convinced that May will have much choice in going beyond that date…