Letters are being sent out to voters in LibDem marginals across the country from former LibDem candidate Mike Smithson – of PoliticalBetting.com fame – explaining the “predictions” he has made based on “what the local data is telling” him. Guido has seen evidence of the missives hitting doormats in Cambridge, East Dunbartonshire and Sheffield Hallam. Wherever they arrive, “the data” outlined in Smithson’s letters always points to voting tactically in support of the Lib Dems. What a shocker!

Will his forecasts do better than Guido’s predictions for Paddy Power’s punters…

UPDATE: And another tip…