5,179 votes separate Labour and UKIP in Tristram’s Stoke-on-Trent Central constituency. It is a Leave constituency (69.4%) which gives UKIP a strong boost. The Tories will fight – more to deny UKIP another seat in parliament than to beat Labour. Labour losing the seat would destabilise Corbyn all over again. 2590 votes switching from Labour will cost them the seat. The LibDems are having a good run and will hoover up left-of-centre Remain voters, potentially giving the seat to either the Tories or UKIP. This is likely to be an intensely fought 4-way fight…

Paddy Power make it 2/7 that Labour retain the seat, with UKIP on 4/1, Tories (9/1) and Lib Dems (20/1). With a low-turnout by-election the UKIP and Tory prices look attractive and worth a flutter…