Fabians: Labour’s “Looming Death”

report out this morning from the Fabians makes dire New Year reading for Jez. Catchily-titled “Stuck: How Labour is Too Weak to Win and Too Strong to Die” predicts electoral oblivion unless the party abandons the Corbynite left: 

“The politics of 2016 may have been frenetic but now an uneasy calm has descended on the Labour party…this is the calm of stalemate, of insignificance, even of looming death.”

Backed by YouGov numbers and its own seat projections it finds:

  • “Approaching half the people who voted Labour in 2015 no longer support the party”;
  • “Since 2015, the party has lost as many votes to the Liberal Democrats as it has to the two right-wing, pro-Brexit parties combined”;
  • “A disastrous election result for Labour would see the party lose around 90 MPs.”

The most interesting numbers show the flow of raw voters away from Labour:

It concludes: “It seems that Labour is equally vulnerable to losing support to another liberal-minded, pro-European party; and to the socially conservative, Euro-sceptic parties.”

This shows Labour losing votes in every possible direction, with the Tories gaining from every possible direction…




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