OECD OMG GDP! Brexit Recession Forecast Reversed

oecd-omg

“Not a single serious economist does not think Brexit will be bad for the economy” was the message from George Osborne when he cited the OECD, IMF and the OBR to back up his arguments that Britain would require an emergency budget and that there would be a worldwide economic shock if Britain voted to Brexit. Yesterday the OECD said it got it got the recession forecast wrong and the ONS confirmed none of the latest data suggests the recession that was predicted by 71% of City economists after the referendum vote. That is worse than astrology hence the Sun’s cracked crystal ball. It is actually worse than just flipping a coin.

All this proves once again that economists are as prone to fashion as any other artists. Economic forecasting is not a mathematical hard science, despite the complicated formulas of which they are so fond. It is a question of judgement. Another area which similarly has too many variables to forecast with confidence yet has almost unanimity among those who claim expertise in the subject is “climate science”. The expert practioners in this area also predict doom and disaster. Do you think they could be related?


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Quote of the Day

Ed Davey on who he would like to see lead a government of national unity

“Yvette Cooper for obvious reasons, she’s been very high-profile in cross-party work, and I’ve also mentioned Hilary Benn as chair of the Brexit Select Committee. But it would not be for me here to make that suggestion, it would be for others working cross-party. I think it probably has to be a Labour MP because most of the MPs supporting a Queen’s Speech would be Labour. Ultimately it’s a challenge to my Labour colleagues, many of who realise a no-deal Brexit would be deeply damaging to their constituents.”

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