PMI Data Shows UK Brexit Fear Has Receded

pmi

Today we saw surprising PMI data released in the US and UK. The UK surprised on the upside with a 53.3 reading, the US surprised on the downside with a 49.4 reading. The €urozone average is 51.7. That puts post-Brexit Britain in gold medal place on the PMI podium…

It is important to understand that the PMI is a survey and reflects the attitude of purchasing managers to the economy and market conditions. Last month UK PMI came in negative and the headlines in the remainstream media were apocalyptic. The reality is business and purchasing managers’ outlook was probably subjectively influenced by George Osborne’s irresponsible “Project Fear” propaganda that the UK would go into immediate recession, require an emergency budget and be attacked by zombies. None of which it now transpires was really true, however it did spook people.

Headlines last month when PMI came in negative were about a dramatic downturn, the FT warned of stagnation and the Indy breathlessly reported the “UK economy shrinking at fastest rate since financial crisis”. Guido doubts we’ll see headlines as dramatically positive tomorrow.

The Bank of England subsequently cut interest rates in a symbolic and probably unnecessary gesture – from 0.5% to 0.25% – a difference which will not animate the economy in any meaningful way. Does today’s PMI number mean Britain’s GDP will conversely now surge? Not really. Not least because China, emerging markets and the €urozone all have economic problems. Brexit is a small factor in the global situation compared to the €uro debt crisis and China’s economic problems, never mind the ever imminent Italian banking crisis…




Tip offs: 0709 284 0531
team@Order-order.com

Quote of the Day

Paul Dacre on the Daily Mail’s future support for Brexit…

“…what moves me most are the countless messages from readers worried about whether the Mail will continue its support for EU withdrawal. My answer to them — and others — is unequivocal. Support for Brexit is in the DNA of both the Daily Mail and, more pertinently, its readers. Any move to reverse this would be editorial and commercial suicide.”

Sponsors

Guidogram: Sign up

Subscribe to the most succinct 7 days a week daily email read by thousands of Westminster insiders.
How Dominic Cummings Cost Taxpayers £20 Billion How Dominic Cummings Cost Taxpayers £20 Billion
Banks Legals Verhofstadt Over Putin Tweet Banks Legals Verhofstadt Over Putin Tweet
Hypocrisy of Chuka Hypocrisy of Chuka
Daily Brexit? Daily Brexit?
Farage vs Verhofstadt Farage vs Verhofstadt
WATCH: Andrea Jenkyns Takes on Remain Protesters WATCH: Andrea Jenkyns Takes on Remain Protesters
Philip Lee Resigns Philip Lee Resigns
Penka Saved Penka Saved
Guy News Special Report : Remain Campaign Cheating Guy News Special Report : Remain Campaign Cheating
No 10 Call DD Stupid No 10 Call DD Stupid
Government Remainers Mock DD for Crying Wolf Government Remainers Mock DD for Crying Wolf
How Brexiteers Lost Control of Brexit How Brexiteers Lost Control of Brexit
Corbyn Backs Free Movement Corbyn Backs Free Movement
Cadwalladr: ‘Unaware of Any Allegations of Cheating by Remain’ Cadwalladr: ‘Unaware of Any Allegations of Cheating by Remain’
Priti Hands Dossier of Remain Collusion Evidence to Electoral Commission Priti Hands Dossier of Remain Collusion Evidence to Electoral Commission
New Bercow Anti-Brexit Car Storm New Bercow Anti-Brexit Car Storm
Professional Coach to Train Anti-Brexit Flash Mob Professional Coach to Train Anti-Brexit Flash Mob
Priti Demands New Probe Into Remain Spending Priti Demands New Probe Into Remain Spending
Anti-Brexit ‘Renew’ Flops Anti-Brexit ‘Renew’ Flops