IFS’s Damning Verdict On Osborne’s Budget

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On last year’s £27 billion OBR windfall:

What Mr Osborne didn’t tell us yesterday is that rather than finding £27 billion the OBR lost £56 billion down that same sofa. As it happens, the total loss to the sofa across the two fiscal events is £29 billion.

That loss largely arises from changes in assumptions about future productivity growth feeding in to lower economic growth over the rest of the parliament. If the OBR is right about that we should all be worried. This will lead to lower wages and living standards, not just lower tax revenues for the Treasury.”

On Osborne’s golden public finance rules:

“Mr Osborne had three fiscal rules – the welfare cap; the rule which said debt should fall as a fraction of national income every year; and the rule to get to budget surplus by 2019-20. He broke his welfare cap in November, and it is now broken by a bigger margin. He told us yesterday he is on course to break his debt rule by the end of this month. The surplus rule is the last rule standing.”

On that same subject Dan Jarvis has a good line that “I’ve had goldfish that have lasted longer than Osborne’s rules”….




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Quote of the Day

John Curtice on fiscal policy:

“Attitudes to taxation and spending are basically counter-cyclical. If a government comes in and tries to reduce spending and taxation, after a while people will get worried about the state of public services. If a government increases taxation and public spending, after a while they’ll get concerned about increasing taxation…. In as much as there are lots of ideologues out there who think the state should be this proportion of GDP, they’re all wrong. Because the public’s view is counter-cyclical to the recent experience. It’s basically impossible to satisfy the public.”

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