Most of the analysis of the pollsters’ collective nightmare has blamed the ‘Shy Tories’ – people who planned on voting Tory but didn’t tell the pollsters. Ipsos MORI have a different theory: that ‘Lazy Labour’ supporters not turning up to vote skewed the numbers.
The final MORI poll suggested 12.5 million people would vote Tory, just ahead of 12.2 million voting Labour.
They weren’t too far off on the Tory number – 11.3 million voted Tory on the day – but some 3 million Labour supporters went missing. Where did they go? MORI chief Ben Page says:
“we think not voted. Predicted turnout 82% day before. Was only 66%”
Their analysis suggests it was young left-wing voters not turning out on the day that explains the difference. The Russell Brand effect…