According to Ashcroft’s latest projection, the following Tory MPs’ seats are on course to fall to Labour: Bob Blackman (Harrow East), Mike Weatherley (Hove), David Morris (Morecambe and Lunesdale), James Wharton (Stockton South).

Better news for Paul Maynard (Blackpool North and Cleveleys), Richard Graham (Gloucester), Chris Skidmore (Kingswood), Nicky Morgan (Loughborough) and Andrew Stephenson (Pendle), all set to hold on. Stuart Andrew in Pudsey is tied with Labour.

The only change from the last Ashcroft poll in these constituencies is Harrow East, whoch turns from blue to red. Ashcroft explains “The most notable movement across the board in this round of polling was a move towards the two main parties at the expense of UKIP”…