Is that tiny blue uptick on the right hand edge of this graph the first sign of the long awaited swing to the Tories reportedly forecast by Lynton Crosby? This is the six month rolling 5 day average of all the pollsters* – based on UK Polling Report data. The uptick is a result of the last seven YouGov polls showing three Tory leads, three draws and only one Labour lead. Pollster Anthony Wells reckons “something may indeed be afoot”…
Tonight’s YouGov/Sun poll is awaited, more eagerly than usual, for confirmation of a trend. Blip or shift?
UPDATE 22:30: False dawn, maybe?
YouGov/Sun poll tonight – Labour ahead by four, their biggest lead since December: CON 31%, LAB 35%, LD 6%, UKIP 15%, GRN 8%
— Sun Politics (@SunPolitics) March 5, 2015
*Ashcroft, ComRes, ICM, Ipsos-Mori, Opinium, Populus, Survation, TNS-BMRB and YouGov.