Blue Dawn: Is Lynton’s Late Swing Starting?

UKPR-3-5-15

Is that tiny blue uptick on the right hand edge of this graph the first sign of the long awaited swing to the Tories reportedly forecast by Lynton Crosby? This is the six month rolling 5 day average of all the pollsters* – based on UK Polling Report data. The uptick is a result of the last seven YouGov polls showing three Tory leads, three draws and only one Labour lead. Pollster Anthony Wells reckons “something may indeed be afoot”…

Tonight’s YouGov/Sun poll is awaited, more eagerly than usual, for confirmation of a trend. Blip or shift?

UPDATE 22:30: False dawn, maybe?

*Ashcroft, ComRes, ICM, Ipsos-Mori, Opinium, Populus, Survation, TNS-BMRB and YouGov.


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Quote of the Day

Writing in this week’s Spectator Diary, the former Chancellor and Evening Standard editor attempted to encapsulate how Boris operates…

“My children have the measure of our prime minister. A couple of years ago, my son and I went for a lovely Sunday lunch at his house in Oxfordshire — where he has a Kalashnikov mounted on the wall. Boris suggested we play a game. A tug of war, but with a difference. The rope is tied around your waist and the contest takes place across a swimming pool. If you lose you end up in the water, fully clothed.

That’s Johnson for you: fun, inventive but ruthless. I suspect his brother Jo had one ducking too many.”

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