Today’s By-Elections: The Numbers

In 2010 UKIP decided not to run a candidate against Douglas Carswell, clearing the way for the Tories to beat Labour by 53% to 25% and hand Carswell a majority of 12,068. Some last minute jitters/expectation management in Clacton from a source close to Carswell suggest he is nowhere near the 32 point lead given to him by Lord Ashcroft’s most recent poll in the constituency. UK Polling Report‘s demographics show Clacton has a high proportion of over 65s, a high proportion not in work and very low numbers of ethnic minorities:

Meanwhile up in Heywood and Middleton:

Labour are on course for a comfortable hold despite a party aide today telling the Staggers Miliband’s attitude to the constituency has been “deeply frustrating” and that they are “completely out of touch” with the concerns of local voters. Even the uninspiring Liz McInnes should be able to defend the late Jim Dobbin’s 5,971 majority. Here are the demographics from UK Polling Report:

We should have the results in the early hours…




Tip offs: 0709 284 0531
team@Order-order.com

Quote of the Day

Jeremy Corbyn told by veteran Jewish MP Margaret Hodge…

“You’re a f***ing anti-aemite and a racist”

Sponsors

Guidogram: Sign up

Subscribe to the most succinct 7 days a week daily email read by thousands of Westminster insiders.
Undead UKIP Poll Rise Terrifies Tories Undead UKIP Poll Rise Terrifies Tories
Marr’s May Monopoly Marr’s May Monopoly
CCHQ Begs Association Chairmen CCHQ Begs Association Chairmen
Poll: Voters 2 to 1 for No Deal Poll: Voters 2 to 1 for No Deal
Paul Mason Reported to Police Paul Mason Reported to Police
Etonian Free Cabinet Etonian Free Cabinet
Tory MP Puts Letter In to Brady Tory MP Puts Letter In to Brady
Lord Carrington Lord Carrington
Poll: May’s Deal or No Deal? Poll: May’s Deal or No Deal?
Labour’s Chequers Survival Kit Labour’s Chequers Survival Kit
Whips’ Patsies in Full Whips’ Patsies in Full
Tories Will Lose Votes if They Cross Brexit Red Lines Tories Will Lose Votes if They Cross Brexit Red Lines
Remain Used Same Spending Tactics as Leave But Far Worse Remain Used Same Spending Tactics as Leave But Far Worse
Paul Mason’s Coming Home to England Paul Mason’s Coming Home to England