Tories Go Ahead With 5% Jump Giving 2% Lead

ASHCROFT-VOLATILITY

Ashcroft has released his weekly poll and the Tory number has jumped significantly. Why?

First of all nobody cares about Coulson’s conviction. The voters think they are all the same, Coulson, McBride, Baldwin – meh, whatever. So what is it? Economic growth, that is improving, not dramatically enough to cause a 5% jump. Last time Guido recalls a 5% move in a poll in a week was April 2009.

So it must be the Juncker effect, as much as Labour and their media allies try to paint the whole failure to block Juncker affair as a humiliation the voters don’t care (and nor incidentally do Tory MPs). Voters like handbag swinging in Europe.

Or it is a statistical aberration…




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Dominic Raab wrote in his letter of resignation…

“This is, at its heart, a matter of public trust,” he told the PM, concluding: “I cannot reconcile the terms of the proposed deal with the promises we made to the country in our manifesto at the last election… I believe that the regulatory regime proposed for Northern Ireland presents a very real threat to the integrity of the United Kingdom. I cannot support an indefinite backstop arrangement, where the EU holds a veto over our ability to exit…”

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