Data Shows Cost-of-Living Crisis About to End

The consensus of broadsheet pundits is that Ed has, with his cost-of-living crisis line that prices are rising faster than wages, nimbly and cleverly switched from a losing argument on the economy to a winning “retail offer”. Guido thinks this successfully plays into the British national psyche; grumbling about both the weather and the cost of things rising. However as the economy rises unemployment falls and earnings will caeteris paribus begin to outstrip inflation as sure as the sun rises. The ONS data shows this is about to happen…

cpi-v-median-earnings

Guido is beginning to worry that Miliband, like his former mentor Gordon Brown, hasn’t really got a strategy. The whole “too far, too fast” thing was bound to end in tears unless there was a permanent recession. As it happened the predictions by Ed Balls of a triple-dip turned out to be über-pessimistic, statisticians say there wasn’t even a double-dip. The only recession the UK suffered originated under Gordon Brown.

The energy cost argument still generates headlines, however international comparisons show that UK energy costs are middle of the league table for Europe – though US fracking and shale gas means their energy costs are way below ours. Fracking however is opposed by Ed Miliband.

What then? Having lost the argument on debt and the economy, followed – food banks notwithstanding – by the cost-of-living crisis evaporating, Labour will have to change tack again. Labour can’t fight on economic competence, because so contaminated is Ed Balls that he even loses to George Osborne. Labour are blamed for the economic mess and are suspected by the voters of still being untrustworthy on dealing with the deficit and debts. They would be unwise to fight on leadership; “weak and weird” Ed versus “posh and out of touch” Dave is not a great prospect for Labour.

Guido’s guess is they will try to have it both ways, partially accept the coalition’s spending envelope and pretend they can tax their way to prosperity. A policy Miliband’s socialist frère Hollande has now abandoned. All the chatter (spun by his adviser Stewart Wood) about Ed’s plans for “big changes in our economy” – a strategy based on East Coast academic theories from Harvard professors on new “Varieties of Capitalism” – will have Lynton Crosby crying with laughter into his (Australian) Chardonnay. Doesn’t mean Miliband isn’t going to try it…

UPDATE: The FT has surveyed economists and they mostly think households will start to feel better off – this is after consumer confidence surged 20% in 2013. Well spotted economists…

ft-survey-economists




Tip offs: 0709 284 0531
team@Order-order.com

Quote of the Day

Dominic Cummings tells Damian Collins:

“You talk of ‘contempt of Parliament’. You seem unaware that most of the country feels contempt for Parliament and this contempt is growing.”

Sponsors

Guidogram: Sign up

Subscribe to the most succinct 7 days a week daily email read by thousands of Westminster insiders.
Anti-Brexit ‘Renew’ Flops Anti-Brexit ‘Renew’ Flops
Robbins Hits Back at Brussels Robbins Hits Back at Brussels
Kremlin Pranksters Fail With Boris Kremlin Pranksters Fail With Boris
Corbynista Back Room Shakeup Corbynista Back Room Shakeup
Labour Live Causing Seizures Labour Live Causing Seizures
7 Cummings Truth Bullets For Brexiter Tory MPs 7 Cummings Truth Bullets For Brexiter Tory MPs
Gallery Guido’s PMQs Sketch Gallery Guido’s PMQs Sketch
Watch: Jon Craig Duped By Daily Mash Watch: Jon Craig Duped By Daily Mash
Boris Tells May: Get On With It Boris Tells May: Get On With It
German Firms Back Brexit Britain German Firms Back Brexit Britain
Zarb Referred to Disputes Panel Zarb Referred to Disputes Panel
Kate Osamor Plagiarised Maiden Speech Kate Osamor Plagiarised Maiden Speech
Ken: Seumas Wrote My Tweets and Never Told Me to Stop Talking About Hitler Ken: Seumas Wrote My Tweets and Never Told Me to Stop Talking About Hitler
Young Voters Now Prefer May to Corbyn Young Voters Now Prefer May to Corbyn
Ruth and Gove Blast “Dour” Tories Ruth and Gove Blast “Dour” Tories
Ken Resigns from Labour Ken Resigns from Labour
New Tory Treasurer is Director of 7 Companies With Overdue Accounts New Tory Treasurer is Director of 7 Companies With Overdue Accounts
All-Remain Peston Show “Kerfuffle” All-Remain Peston Show “Kerfuffle”
Top Tory’s Firm Implicated in Russian Dirty Money Report Top Tory’s Firm Implicated in Russian Dirty Money Report