GALLERY GUIDO: Osborne, the Laffer Curve and the Left

There’s a Computable General Equilibrium Model at the Treasury. If it were made of string and resin it wouldn’t be any less reliable, but its predictions about the cut in corporation tax are likable, so let’s quote them.

The Treasury select committee told us the computer is forecasting corporation tax going from 28 pence to 20 pence will increase GDP between 0.6 and 0.8 per cent, and will increase business investment from 2.5 per cent of some damn thing or other to 4.5 per cent.

It’s “a quiet revolution” George Osborne says, of this example of the Laffer Curve in action.

This curve is still mocked by the left. But it has an interesting pedigree.

An early exposition from the 1930s put it like this:

“Nor should the argument seem strange that taxation may be so high as to defeat its object, and that, given sufficient time to gather the fruits, a reduction of taxation will run a better chance than an increase of balancing the budget.”

That is – the budget can be balanced by reducing tax not increasing it.

“For to take the opposite view today is to resemble a manufacturer who, running at a loss, decides to raise his price, and when his declining sales increase the loss, wrapping himself in the rectitude of plain arithmetic, decides that prudence requires him to raise the price still more—and who, when at last his account is balanced with nought on both sides, is still found righteously declaring that it would have been the act of a gambler to reduce the price when you were already making a loss.”

“The act of a gambler” to reduce taxation. “A dangerous experiment” as it might be said. An ideological leap into the dark. These criticisms are still made by the left, and even by Red and Redder Eds.

The author of the proposition was one of the few economists capable of writing a phrase like “the rectitude of plain arithmetic”. But then he wasn’t an economist from birth.

It was John Maynard Keynes.




Tip offs: 0709 284 0531
team@Order-order.com

Quote of the Day

Alan Sugar on Jeremy Corbyn:

“It’s clear you alluded to students refunds to get votes from young impressionable people. You are a cheat and should resign.”

Sponsors

Guidogram: Sign up

Subscribe to the most succinct 7 days a week daily email read by thousands of Westminster insiders.
Exclusive: New Government Appointments in Full Exclusive: New Government Appointments in Full
Corbyn Deletes Another Wrong Tweet Corbyn Deletes Another Wrong Tweet
Everything is Awesome for Manufacturing Everything is Awesome for Manufacturing
HMT Predictions Way Off HMT Predictions Way Off
#DespiteBrexit: A Classic of the Genre #DespiteBrexit: A Classic of the Genre
Hat-Trick of Brexit Good News Hat-Trick of Brexit Good News
Guido’s Student Debt Story on Standard Front Page Guido’s Student Debt Story on Standard Front Page
Watch: Shadow Minister Makes Student Debt Promise Watch: Shadow Minister Makes Student Debt Promise
IPSO Throws Out Baroness Scotland Complaints IPSO Throws Out Baroness Scotland Complaints
100% Inheritance Tax: Stupid or Evil? 100% Inheritance Tax: Stupid or Evil?
Paul Mason’s Play in 60 Seconds Paul Mason’s Play in 60 Seconds
Sunday Shows Sunday Shows
City Confident as Hiring Rates Rocket City Confident as Hiring Rates Rocket
Watch: Best Maiden Speech of 2017 Intake Watch: Best Maiden Speech of 2017 Intake
Child Protection Investigation ‘Stalled to Help Labour’ Child Protection Investigation ‘Stalled to Help Labour’
Davis Accepts Donations from Top Blairite and TV Remainer Davis Accepts Donations from Top Blairite and TV Remainer
BBC #NotOnTheList Stars Paid Via Production Companies BBC #NotOnTheList Stars Paid Via Production Companies
Pants-Wearing Councillor Boasted He Had “Vaz in My Right Pocket” Pants-Wearing Councillor Boasted He Had “Vaz in My Right Pocket”
Champion: ‘Not Possible’ to Keep Student Debt Promise Champion: ‘Not Possible’ to Keep Student Debt Promise
BBC Rich List Revealed: Salaries In Full BBC Rich List Revealed: Salaries In Full