Ed Leaves Room to Kill Tories on Europe

“Weak” is the word Tory spinners want their MPs to repeat over and over (and over) again this morning following Miliband’s decision to duck the EU referendum vote. One particularly jubilant CCHQ source tells Guido “we are literally punching the air”. They will want to be wary of complacency though. Ed may well look weak now, though when the dust had settled in the run up to 2015 he has left himself in a position where he can still kill the Tories on Europe.

It isn’t impossible that this is part of a coordinated strategy to overtake the Tories on the inside and pledge a referendum in 2015. It is certainly no coincidence that abstaining leaves Miliband room to do so, as the Labour For a Referendum campaign will be arguing for the next two years. Indeed one of James Wharton’s greatest fears has been that they would spring a surprise and ruin his fifteen minutes. Guido wouldn’t even rule out Labour and the LibDems turning up on Friday, July 5. Nobody expects the Spanish Inquisition…




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Quote of the Day

The FT’s Wolfgang Munchau on the “fake maths” of economic forecasts:

“The truth is that our ability to forecast the future beyond the current quarter is limited… The curse of our time is fake maths. Think of it as fake news for numerically literate intellectuals: it is the abuse of statistics and economic models to peddle one’s own political prejudice… The fakeness of the maths lies in an exaggerated inference. Economic models have their uses, as do opinion polls. They provide information to policymakers and markets. But nobody can see through the fog of the future.”

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