Here are the Newark stats:

1. Conservative: 27590 (53.9%)
2. Labour: 11438 (22.3%)
3. Lib Dem: 10246 (20%)
4. UKIP: 1954 (3.8%)

A 16,152 uphill struggle for UKIP based on 2010, but here are the local election results from the beginning of the month:

UKIP were making major gains in the area before this all kicked off.

Dave shouldn’t laugh too hard…

Local stats via Shneur Odze.

UPDATE:

Tory source: "No by-election. He will stand down in 2015."

— Guido Fawkes (@GuidoFawkes) May 31, 2013

We’ll see…