Disgruntled Tory MPs who have shown ankle to Adam Afriyie were surprised to hear his allies tell them to please refrain from writing any letters to Graham Brady. “We were asked to ‘wait’,” one tells Guido, “not sure until when though.” The theory goes that Afriyie believes he has enough names pledged to trigger a vote of confidence, if he ever chooses to push the button. Guido is sceptical. With the maths as it is, as it stands it would be a suicide mission. 

As Ben Brogan wrote this morning:

“A confidence vote would have untold consequences for the party. It would look self-indulgent, not least because it is unlikely to result in Mr Cameron’s ejection, and therefore change at the top. It would serve only to highlight his – and the party’s – internal weakness.”

It seems Afriyie is acutely aware of this fact.

One theory put to Guido is that Afriyie, and the disgruntled 2005 backbenchers around him, are only in it for jobs. Gambling that if they can play peacemakers behind the scenes between Cameron/Osborne and the Tory Right, then they would be rewarded. There is nothing about the character or past behaviour of the leadership that points to this plan working though. There is only going to be one loser here…