One Term Tories

Before the 2010 general election Guido had a sense that we were heading towards coalition government, stuck his neck out, and called it a month before the election. Reading the runes again it seems to Guido increasingly likely we are looking at a one-term Tory-led government.

Right now the bookies favour no overall majority, polls suggest Labour could be the largest party, in that event the LibDems, probably without Clegg, will in all likelihood support a Labour government.

The primary cause will be the economy, the probability of a double-dip recession is rising. The US economy is in trouble, the Eurozone is in turmoil, growth is faltering at home and abroad. Inflation is out of control, real incomes are actually falling in the UK. By 2015 the answer the electorate will give to Ronald Reagan’s Are you better off than you were four years ago?” question may well be “No.”

Osborne’s plan was to bear down on the deficit for a couple of years, restructure taxes a little, revolutionise education policy, tinker with welfare to make work pay, give tax cuts in 2013-14 once the fiscal picture was improved and go on to win the Tories a governing majority. In the second term, free of the LibDem drag,  they would really press on with radically remaking government and the Big Society. Alas they may only have one term.

Things are not turning out so well. Osborne may need to have a root around in his desk to find some of Gordon Brown’s old lines about “it started in America” and “global economic downturn”. Osborne’s hawkishness on the deficit is being rewarded by the international bond markets, but there is little he can do about international demand. US confidence has been shaken up by the downgrade and even German GDP growth was only 0.1% last quarter, Europe may well go into recession within a year, assuming the continental banking system doesn’t collapse next week. None of this will enhance Tory election prospects.

It gets worse for Downing Street; Andy Coulson could be in the dock the year before the election, or worse still, in jail. This will of course tarnish Cameron and Osborne. There is also the possibility that Coulson, as well as other News International figures, could sing about matters that would be excruciatingly embarrassing for the Tories. Osborne, who was really responsible for getting Andy Coulson his job, will be in a particularly uncomfortable position, perhaps even more so than Cameron. Coulson knows where the bodies are buried




Tip offs: 0709 284 0531
team@Order-order.com

Quote of the Day

Theresa May tells Bercow:

“Mr Speaker-elect, can I congratulate you on your re-election. At least someone got a landslide.”

Sponsors

Guidogram: Sign up

Subscribe to the most succinct 7 days a week daily email read by thousands of Westminster insiders.
Corbyn Refuses to Bow to The Queen Corbyn Refuses to Bow to The Queen
McDonnell Repeatedly Backed Far Left ‘Day of Rage’ Group McDonnell Repeatedly Backed Far Left ‘Day of Rage’ Group
“Soft” and “Hard” Brexit Terms Obsolete “Soft” and “Hard” Brexit Terms Obsolete
Hammond’s “Sound Money” Speech Sadly All Spin Hammond’s “Sound Money” Speech Sadly All Spin
Tommy Robinson Called British Muslims “Enemy Combatants” Tommy Robinson Called British Muslims “Enemy Combatants”
Corbyn Praised at London Hezbollah Rally Corbyn Praised at London Hezbollah Rally
Government Understaffed – Key SpAd Vacancies Up for Grabs Government Understaffed – Key SpAd Vacancies Up for Grabs
Sunday Shows Sunday Shows
Clive Lewis: “Burn Neoliberalism” Clive Lewis: “Burn Neoliberalism”
Corbynista Ultras Involved in Storming Kensington Council Corbynista Ultras Involved in Storming Kensington Council
CCHQ Already Preparing for Next Election CCHQ Already Preparing for Next Election
CCHQ Diverted Resources from ‘Safe Seats’ Tories Lost CCHQ Diverted Resources from ‘Safe Seats’ Tories Lost
Constituent Claims New Labour MP Called Her “Ugly B*tch” Constituent Claims New Labour MP Called Her “Ugly B*tch”
Corbyn vs Blair Corbyn vs Blair
How to Speak Like a Corbynista How to Speak Like a Corbynista
Told You So: 16 Times Guido Was May-Sceptic Told You So: 16 Times Guido Was May-Sceptic
10 Times Owen Jones Betrayed Jeremy Corbyn 10 Times Owen Jones Betrayed Jeremy Corbyn
Queen’s Speech Day of Chaos Queen’s Speech Day of Chaos
Every MP Who Lost Their Seat Every MP Who Lost Their Seat