It Ain't Over till the Electoral Reform Society Sings


Guido has basically got his betting book flat on the Labour leadership, after backing David originally, flipping around onto Ed last Friday and adding to his position substantially during the week. Guido took the book to basically neutral last night, after selling Ed at ridiculously high prices going into the result.

Why? Because it is just too close to call with confidence.

Unless the Electoral Reform Society has leaked – something Guido doubts – the Thursday night flip happened because punters put money on Ed, it snowballed taking him beyond evens and making him favourite. There was no new poll or information on Thursday, the price moved simply and only because there were more buyers than sellers.

At the time of writing the specialist political bookies Smarkets* have Ed with an 80% probability of winning, it should be nearer 50/50 based on the polling and closeness of the count. Guido is tempted, on a valuation basis, to sell Ed at that price…

*As far as Guido can see they are the only bookies still making prices.




Tip offs: 0709 284 0531
team@Order-order.com

Quote of the Day

Top Corbynista Cat Smith on the general election:

“…we didn’t lose it…”

Sponsors

Guidogram: Sign up

Subscribe to the most succinct 7 days a week daily email read by thousands of Westminster insiders.
Hammond Overspending by Just £10 Million an Hour Hammond Overspending by Just £10 Million an Hour
Momentum Soft Smut Snapper Rejected as Labour Candidate Momentum Soft Smut Snapper Rejected as Labour Candidate
All Smiles After Cabinet All Smiles After Cabinet
Who’s The Eye’s Telegraph Mole? Who’s The Eye’s Telegraph Mole?
UK Green Lobby Funded by Anti-Immigrant Multi-Millionaire UK Green Lobby Funded by Anti-Immigrant Multi-Millionaire
Tory Glasto Hosted by Multi-Millionaire Gambling Magnate Tory Glasto Hosted by Multi-Millionaire Gambling Magnate
Hammond and Treasury “On Manoeuvres” Against Brexit Hammond and Treasury “On Manoeuvres” Against Brexit
Osborne Lands Job Number Seven Osborne Lands Job Number Seven
Civil Service ‘Not Really Preparing’ For No Deal Civil Service ‘Not Really Preparing’ For No Deal
Osborne’s Latest Duff Analysis Osborne’s Latest Duff Analysis
Corbynista Journo Banned from Conference Corbynista Journo Banned from Conference
Sheerman’s Shameless Shilling Sheerman’s Shameless Shilling
Carwyn Jones Picks a Winner Carwyn Jones Picks a Winner
Red Robbins: May’s Brexit Supremo is Soviet Sympathiser Red Robbins: May’s Brexit Supremo is Soviet Sympathiser
Owen Goes Full Brent Owen Goes Full Brent
What Caused Rachel Sylvester’s Volte Face? What Caused Rachel Sylvester’s Volte Face?
Labour Moderates Screwed Labour Moderates Screwed
WATCH Boris: “I’m Not Resigning” WATCH Boris: “I’m Not Resigning”
Corbynistas Seek Right to Suspend NEC Elections With “Venezuela Amendment” Corbynistas Seek Right to Suspend NEC Elections With “Venezuela Amendment”