So the deal is a whipped vote for a referendum which most Tory MPs including Cameron will campaign against and a fair number of cabinet seats. It is rumoured that six cabinet seats are on offer.

Will this cut any mustard with the weirdie beardies? They know this is their best chance for electoral reform ever, they haven’t got a firm offer.  If nine lefties on the Federal Executive say “no” it will have to go to the members.  Cowley Street insiders say it is the only deal in town now, but LibDems are often awkward types, hence the bookies making it a 96.5% probability tonight, 3.5% short of a done deal.  That 3.5% shortfall is the random weirdie beardie risk.