Labour Third, Pollsters and Punters Expect Cameron to be PM

This is the latest rolling average of the last week’s polls.  Political punters give Cameron a 84% chance of being the next Prime Minister, which seems like a bit of a sell given punters currently make a hung parliament a 52% probability.

Drilling down onto seat numbers the punters are evenly divided rating the chances of the Tories getting between 300 and 324 seats, 2 short of an overall majority, at 29%.  They rate the chances of them getting a majority in the 325 to 349 range also at 29%.  The cliche “it is still all to play” for is absolutely true…


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Lewis Goodall opines

“Remainer readers may dislike Mr Farage – they may dislike his style, his rhetoric, his approach – but he cannot be faulted for his appreciation of strategy. If his opponents don’t up their game – and fast – he will beat them, just as he did before.”

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