#TV10 Tactical Voting Against Labour

If Labour drops a few more points in polls and is confirmed as the third placed party, it represents an historic opportunity for Nick Clegg’s LibDems to displace Labour as the official opposition.  Except that the electoral system means that depending on the distribution of votes Labour could, as Kevin Maguire gloats this morning, actually benefit from the strengthened LibDem’s taking votes from the Tories.

In Labour held seats where either the Tory or LibDem* candidate is a strong second place contender with a distant third place contender, the voters who want to get rid of Labour should rationally should switch their vote to the second place contender.  Guido makes no bones about wanting to see the Labour Party wiped out as an electoral force.  So over the following weeks the blog will be highlighting seats where an element of tactical voting would unseat the Labour incumbent.

First up, Islington South & Finsbury, where Labour’s Emily Thornberry clings onto a majority by 484 votes. If true blues want to get rid of the red, they will have to vote yellow.  Free Emily and her husband to concentrate on their multi-million pound property empire…

*The same logic applies to the SNP and Plaid Cymru.

Hat-tip : Poster via LibDemVoice




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Quote of the Day

The FT’s Wolfgang Munchau on the “fake maths” of economic forecasts:

“The truth is that our ability to forecast the future beyond the current quarter is limited… The curse of our time is fake maths. Think of it as fake news for numerically literate intellectuals: it is the abuse of statistics and economic models to peddle one’s own political prejudice… The fakeness of the maths lies in an exaggerated inference. Economic models have their uses, as do opinion polls. They provide information to policymakers and markets. But nobody can see through the fog of the future.”

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