Last night at the launch party for Lady Carla Powell’s Austerity Cookbook, Guido was chatting to Fraser Nelson and Tim Montgomerie when Danny Finkelstein wandered over.  Fink had a glass of champagne rather than his usual diet coke in hand.  Guido wonders if the bubbles went to his head…

We were talking about the Tories improved standing in the opinion polls since Monday’s chancellor’s debate – the differential has gone from a low of 2% to a high of 10% ahead – Fraser gave the credit to Osborne’s promise on Monday to cut Labour’s N.I. tax on jobs.  Fink said he thought the movement in the polls this week was attributable to the Tories, Osborne in particular, drumming into the media that “7 out of 10 taxpayers will be better off as a result”.  Tim Montgomerie’s jaw hit the floor, Guido gulped his drink and even the ever loquacious Fraser was silenced.  Fink has been arguing for years that the voters don’t believe politician’s promises of tax cuts and they certainly won’t vote for tax cuts when the deficit is so bad.

UPDATE : This morning he says that the chancellor’s debate wasn’t that influential. Hungover Danny?