Tweetminster Predicts Labour Biggest Party

Tweetminster is the website for people too stupid to work Tweetdeck or any of the many other Twitter apps. They have had problems with their headline-friendly research before – they overestimated Labour activity on Twitter by 45%. After a bit of prompting they retracted those figures in an embarrassing climbdown. Now they are claiming they can predict the election based on tweet patterns – essentially the thesis is that the more tweeted about the candidate, the more likely they are to get elected.   On that basis they are predicting that Labour will get 35%, Tories 34% and LibDems 22% with others scraping 9%.

There are so many methodological errors it is hard to know where to start. The most obvious one is that the Twittersphere is not representative of the voting population. Guido wants to know, do they fancy a bet?




Tip offs: 0709 284 0531
team@Order-order.com

Quote of the Day

Radio Derby: “Do you know what a mugwump is?”

Theresa May: “What I recognise is that what we need in this country is strong and stable leadership.”

Sponsors

Guidogram: Sign up

Subscribe to the most succinct 7 days a week daily email read by thousands of Westminster insiders.

Facebook

Zac Back? Watch Our Guy News Special Zac Back? Watch Our Guy News Special
Campaign Report: 43 Days To Go Campaign Report: 43 Days To Go
Gallery Guido’s PMQs Sketch Gallery Guido’s PMQs Sketch
Farron U-Turns and Sacks David Ward Farron U-Turns and Sacks David Ward
‘Spring’ Breaks: Jolyon’s Short-Lived New Party ‘Spring’ Breaks: Jolyon’s Short-Lived New Party
More Selection Shenanigans More Selection Shenanigans
Bouattia Ousted Bouattia Ousted
David Ward Becoming a Problem for Farron David Ward Becoming a Problem for Farron
Clive Lewis Slammed by ICM for Fake News Poll Clive Lewis Slammed by ICM for Fake News Poll
Radio 4 Gossips Link Peston to Today Radio 4 Gossips Link Peston to Today
Mirror Chicken Fattened for Election Slaughter Mirror Chicken Fattened for Election Slaughter
Len Tries to Stitch Up Liverpool Walton for His Bag Carrier Len Tries to Stitch Up Liverpool Walton for His Bag Carrier
Starmer on Corbyn: Then and Now Starmer on Corbyn: Then and Now
Updates: Who’s Standing? Who’s Standing Down? Updates: Who’s Standing? Who’s Standing Down?
Banks Bottles It Banks Bottles It
Corbynista Unfurls “Farron Hates Gays” Placard Corbynista Unfurls “Farron Hates Gays” Placard
Esther McVey for Tatton Esther McVey for Tatton
Zac Back? Zac Back?
UKIP’s Islamo-Banifesto UKIP’s Islamo-Banifesto
Karen Danczuk Seeks Selection in Bury Karen Danczuk Seeks Selection in Bury