So Much for the Santa Claus Rally

Those of you who have been following Guido’s trading on the right will have seen it jump substantially last week. Guido was short Dow and FTSE futures which collapsed after the auto-bailout deal in Washington failed midweek, closed all the positions before the yanks could cobble together some compromise. Booked profits for the trading for the last three months are 97% – Mrs Fawkes hinted that perhaps going back to full-time trading might be more lucrative than blogging. Perhaps, however this was performance off a small amount of capital, the Value-at-Risk was sometimes leveraged 20 times, it was pure risk money and Guido got lucky.

Basically the trades were shorting the pound versus the euro, selling rallies in the Dow and FTSE, quickly covering after significant drops. Somehow Guido managed to lose money twice trading from the long side on Gold futures just before retracements rather than just buying and holding. Sir Michael White sneered at Guido for recommending buying gold as we shift towards Mugabonomics and the Bank of England sets the printing presses rolling. Gold is the safest refuge and the cost of carry with interest rates tending towards zero is ever more favourable to passive holders of the metal.

Sterling investors who bought gold at the beginning of the year have seen it rise 28% from £424 to £544 an ounce. If in 2009 we see “quantitative easing” (printing money), holding gold will be insurance as much as an investment. If you have apocalyptic fears, holding physical gold coins is reassuring.

Won’t be keeping a diary of trades on the blog next year, because this is a politics blog and some (not all) readers find it boring and/or self indulgent. Not bothered about being self indulgent (it is a personal blog) but being boring won’t do.

mdi-timer 13 December 2008 @ 14:58 13 Dec 2008 @ 14:58 mdi-twitter mdi-facebook mdi-whatsapp mdi-telegram mdi-linkedin mdi-email mdi-comment View Comments
+++ UK Statistics Head : Government Knife Crime Figures Distorted +++ mdi-timer 12 December 2008 @ 15:25 12 Dec 2008 @ 15:25 mdi-twitter mdi-facebook mdi-whatsapp mdi-telegram mdi-linkedin mdi-email mdi-comment View Comments
Friday Caption Competition

mdi-timer 12 December 2008 @ 12:05 12 Dec 2008 @ 12:05 mdi-twitter mdi-facebook mdi-whatsapp mdi-telegram mdi-linkedin mdi-email mdi-comment View Comments
For You Herr Brown, the Boom is Over
Steffen Kampeter, is the budget spokesman for Merkel’s CDU, last night he backed Peer Steinbrück (the SPD finance minister), saying he was “exactly expressing” the views of the government. Yesterday Balls and Brown were spinning bullshit saying that this was internal German coalition politics – in fact it is the shared view of both the CDU and the SPD.

Kampeter put the boot into Crash Gordon: “Peer Steinbrück’s comments have nothing whatsoever to do with internal German politics as Prime Minister Brown has suggested. In questioning the British Government’s approach, Peer Steinbrück is exactly expressing the views of the German Grand Coalition. After years of lecturing us on how we need to share in the gains of uncontrolled financial markets, the Labour politicians can’t now expect us to share in it’s losses. The tremendous amount of debt being offered by Britain shows a complete failure of Labour policy.”

mdi-timer 12 December 2008 @ 07:25 12 Dec 2008 @ 07:25 mdi-twitter mdi-facebook mdi-whatsapp mdi-telegram mdi-linkedin mdi-email mdi-comment View Comments
Did Dale Bribe Labour MP Ann Moffat?
The cover of the Total Politics January edition depicts Harriet Harman as Wonder Woman. Which is ridiculous, because as any fool knows, Crash Flash Gordon’s partner was Dale Arden.

Trying to make a joke of the Prime Mentalists Freudian slip Harman has just told the house that she would “rather have Superman as our leader than their leader who is The Joker”. Immediately after that quip Ann Moffat chipped in “Wonder Woman does it again…”

So either Dale is paying for promotional product placement or the whole Labour Party is gripped with a delusion of superpowers.

mdi-timer 11 December 2008 @ 16:01 11 Dec 2008 @ 16:01 mdi-twitter mdi-facebook mdi-whatsapp mdi-telegram mdi-linkedin mdi-email mdi-comment View Comments
Dead Tree Press Now Actually Dying
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mdi-timer 11 December 2008 @ 15:51 11 Dec 2008 @ 15:51 mdi-twitter mdi-facebook mdi-whatsapp mdi-telegram mdi-linkedin mdi-email mdi-comment View Comments
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