The poll is the first since John Mason sensationally won the Glasgow East by-election and shows the SNP on 44% with Labour trailing on 25%. On the basis of these figures all three prospective Scottish Labour leadership candidates would lose their seats to the SNP.
Scottish Parliament constituency vote [change from May 2007 in brackets]:
SNP: 44% [+11]
Labour: 25% [-7]
Lib Dem: 14% [-2]
Con: 13% [-4]
Other: 4% [+2]
Applying these figures to the Weber Shandwick Scotland Votes model, the SNP would win 58 of Scotland’s 73 Holyrood first-past-the-post seats.
SNP – 58 constituency seats (plus 37)
Labour – 8 constituency seats (minus 29)
LibDems – 6 constituency seats (minus 5)
Tories – 1 constituency seat (minus 3)
The SNP would gain the seats of all three Labour leadership contenders – Iain Gray, Andy Kerr and Cathy Jamieson.
Source : SNP
Normally a 51% constituency majority would be impregnable…