When the Going Gets Tough…

A Guardian/ICM poll for tomorrow is reporting a 20% lead for Cameron over Brown. The last time things were this bad for the Labour Party was 1986 when employment was rising, inflation was falling, taxes were being cut and the Tories were on their way to a third out of four terms. Billy Ocean was number 1 at the time with “When the going gets tough, the tough get going” – Gordon is, unfortunately, going nowhere.

Morgan Allen Moore Libel Case Close to Collapse

Readers may or may not know that Peter Hain’s campaign manager’s lobby firm, Morgan Allen Moore, was suing for defamation the person who reported them to the lobby industry’s APPC disciplinary committee over their role in his campaign. Notice that they did not seek to sue Guido for defamation. The whole purpose of the lawsuit was to halt the progress of the disciplinary committee investigation by making it sub judice and quash the complaint by pressurising James Davenport into withdrawing for fear of legal expenses and a lengthy case. To his credit he has refused to back down.
The central allegation made here and repeated in Davenport’s formal complaint was that Steve Morgan and Morgan Allen Moore provided undeclared services to Peter Hain’s campaign in terms of staff and resources in breach of the rules.

In a sworn statement provided to the Court, Richard Moore, Steve Morgan’s co-director denied this was true. Devastating documentary evidence has come to light directly contradicting Richard Moore’s claim. The evidence reveals that donors were instructed to send Hain4Labour campaign donations to the Morgan Allen Moore office where the cheques would be processed by Morgan Allen Moore staff.

So Guido is happy to repeat that Morgan the Organ’s MAM office was effectively Hain’s campaign base and that MAM staff such as Kate Lewis were running the campaign. This clearly breaks the APPC’s Code of Conduct.

Guido is happy to testify and provide the evidence…

Punters Favour Winter Exit for Brown

Punters on Betfair make a post party conference exit for Brown favourite at 5/2, with the odds on him lasting another year lengthening to 9/1. Could he be shown the door under the guise of ill-health? The contempt in which he is held in private by his own party is pitiful.

Guido suspects (hopes) Gordon will last until the general election…

Who’s Miserable Now?

Polly is moaning about the Daily Mail, The Sun and “the dominant voices of the blogosphere” being malicious pessimistic miserablists. Is she having a laugh?

Guido miserable? Has she seen the polls? Labour polling the worst since polling began, Gordon the most hated Prime Minister in history with the most negative ratings ever? If Quentin Letts and Richard Littlejohn fancy coming out to lunch we would probably all die laughing… (don’t get your hopes up Polly).

UPDATE : According to a co-conspirator Polly said on Radio 5 this morning that she earns £117,000 for her column.

Totalled

Blogging was light yesterday as it was a busy day for Guido. Met David Farrar of Kiwiblog fame. He is in London on a European pub tour for an IDU meeting in Paris, it ended up being a bit of an afternoon session in the sunshine down the pub. Went from there with Mike Smithson of PoliticalBetting and LabourHome’s Jag Singh to Iain Dale’s Total Politics launch party to see if Guido could drink the place out of Pimms. Cheers to Lord Ashcroft.

Got increasingly “tired” and incoherent as the night wore on. Everyone wanted to see the tag. Crowd was mainly media-political rather than politicians. Avoided Mark Oaten, argued with Angus MacNeil, congratulated Sunny Hundal on making Liberal Conspiracy work (was clearly more than merry by this point), harangued a certain former Newsnight producer, worried at how much weight Jon Craig has lost – he was delicately sipping a glass of champagne – on the way out Jonathan Isaby’s girlfriend told Guido to stop bullying him.

Total Politics bills itself as being positive about politics and politicians, as such it is aimed squarely at the political class. Which is very different from the way Guido takes aim at them…



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Quote of the Day

The FT’s Wolfgang Munchau on the “fake maths” of economic forecasts:

“The truth is that our ability to forecast the future beyond the current quarter is limited… The curse of our time is fake maths. Think of it as fake news for numerically literate intellectuals: it is the abuse of statistics and economic models to peddle one’s own political prejudice… The fakeness of the maths lies in an exaggerated inference. Economic models have their uses, as do opinion polls. They provide information to policymakers and markets. But nobody can see through the fog of the future.”

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