It seems pretty clear that Brown’s attempt to placate Labour MPs by attending the meeting of the PLP on Monday was not successful. Labour MPs actually criticised him to his face about putting up taxes on low income earners. When Brown went into his tractor-production-is-up mode around the room “there was a collective murmur of disagreement. It was like a collective heckle”– according to an unnamed MP quoted by the Guardian’s Nicholas Watt.

On the opposition benches the grassroots polling carried out by ConservativeHome is reporting high levels of satisfaction with Dave. Labour’s Charles Clarke MP helpfully produced a doomsday list of southern seats that will see Labour MPs out come the general election. Those marginal MPs will be the ones who start agitating for a change of direction and perhaps a change of leader. Ivan Lewis, a government minister, laid into Brown on the weekend. He said the government is out of touch with ordinary Labour voters. Even the Mirror’s Kevin Maguire agrees – “Labour must prove it’s in touch with voters”.

Brown will be fighting on two fronts, his own benches restless and fearful, the opposition benches hungry and united. How long will the Blairites restrain themselves? Guido suspects that the psychological impact of Mayor Boris will be huge. It will signal that a Brown led Labour Party is facing certain electoral defeat.

The civil war will begin on May 2…