UPDATED : Election Fever – Who Says When

Dateline : 5 October

The Telegraph’s Daniel Hannan has been in touch to point out that Peter Riddell first ruled out any prospect of a 2007 poll back in June, “that’s what first persuaded me it was likely.” He also says Janet Daley has done a similar flip.

Daniel himself has been saying for five months that there’ll be an election this year which he reckons means almost certainly there won’t be “as I’m the world’s worst forecaster”.

Dateline : 4 October
Over the last week or so Guido has been tracking the pundits predictions and will be updating this list (do add pundits names and predictions in the comments):

  • Peter Riddell – “it will almost certainly be on November 1 or 8.”*
  • Tim Montgomerie – is betting on an autumn election
  • Iain Dale – thought Gordon might call it during Tory conference
  • Nick Robinson tells us the preparations for an immediate election are real
  • Team Cameron – we don’t know but “we are on battle stations”.
  • Peter Riddell also ruled out a 2007 election last June.
  • Adam Boulton – told Guido he didn’t think this autumn, but you never know.
  • Mike Smithson – thinks Gordon will play it extra long, not before 2009.
  • Fraser Nelson – can’t see why Gordon would want to shorten his reign.
  • Benedict Brogan – not now, according to his Brownite sources.
  • Steve Richards suspects Dave will be able to claim next week that he stopped the mighty Mr Brown from calling a November election.
  • Michael White suspects not soon.
  • Dizzy Thinks not now.
  • Janet Daley wrote in July “I will stake my commentator’s credibility on the prediction that he will not do so, because I believe that his sense of his own political seriousness would make it inconceivable that he would cut and run before he has established his new dispensation and stamped his own objectives on government.”
Where is Guido sticking his neck? The Brownies are a secretive cabal yet they have signalled a supposed snap election intention. Why would they signal their true intentions to the enemy? Gordon will stretch out his term as long as he can…

Guido has been laying “before Dec 2007” on Betfair if you think Guido is wrong. It has been known…

*Peter Riddell has been been in touch to say he has been quoted out of context and he hasn’t a clue when the election is going to be.




Tip offs: 0709 284 0531
team@Order-order.com

Quote of the Day

President Trump on May’s Brexit deal:

“I would say that Brexit is Brexit. … The people voted to break it up. So I would imagine that’s what they’ll do. But maybe they’ll take a different route, I’m not sure that’s what they voted for.”

Sponsors

Guidogram: Sign up

Subscribe to the most succinct 7 days a week daily email read by thousands of Westminster insiders.
Marr’s May Monopoly Marr’s May Monopoly
CCHQ Begs Association Chairmen CCHQ Begs Association Chairmen
Poll: Voters 2 to 1 for No Deal Poll: Voters 2 to 1 for No Deal
Paul Mason Reported to Police Paul Mason Reported to Police
Etonian Free Cabinet Etonian Free Cabinet
Tory MP Puts Letter In to Brady Tory MP Puts Letter In to Brady
Lord Carrington Lord Carrington
Poll: May’s Deal or No Deal? Poll: May’s Deal or No Deal?
Labour’s Chequers Survival Kit Labour’s Chequers Survival Kit
Whips’ Patsies in Full Whips’ Patsies in Full
Tories Will Lose Votes if They Cross Brexit Red Lines Tories Will Lose Votes if They Cross Brexit Red Lines
Remain Used Same Spending Tactics as Leave But Far Worse Remain Used Same Spending Tactics as Leave But Far Worse
Paul Mason’s Coming Home to England Paul Mason’s Coming Home to England
Penny’s Sign Language at Despatch Box Penny’s Sign Language at Despatch Box
Lefties Disappointed as England Win Lefties Disappointed as England Win
SNP Plot to Ruin England Match SNP Plot to Ruin England Match
MEPs Vote to Reject Transparency MEPs Vote to Reject Transparency
Labour Reinstate Jared Labour Reinstate Jared
Hancock Jumps on a Wall Hancock Jumps on a Wall