Friday Caption Competition (Reds Edition)

Competition Winners

The best entries in the competition for a limerick that wittily summed up Gordon’s conference speech win. Some were very good but didn’t scan properly, others (which Guido particularly enjoyed) were too foul for the sponsors to be seen to endorse.

MixTogether said…

There was an auld policy robber
Who liked the Conservatives’ clobber
“I’m Labour”, said he,
“With a capital ‘C’-
If you’re going to vote Tory, don’t bother!”

Nick Drew said…

Said the cowardly Cowdenbeath Scot
“If I use the word BRITISH a lot
and pretend that I’m CHANGED
(and by no means deranged)
– they won’t notice the economy’s shot . . .”

Charlotte Corday said…

Lacking Blair’s sheer theatrical ham,
Brown droned on about Britishness ad nauseam,
He’s against hospital grime,
Drugs, boozing and crime.
But if we’re good, we’re allowed a small Babysham.

Email Guido your postal addresses. If you didn’t win you can always order a pack here.

Opinion Polls versus Actual Votes

Guido just stuck even more money on the Tories being the biggest party post-election. Note the bet terms carefully – the biggest party. The prices have admittedly moved further against the Tories since last month when Guido stuck £50 on Betfair. Guido now has a few hundred on ’em at prices up to 3.5, which seems too generous to resist. Crazy?

Last night the Tories took a seat off Labour in Sunderland, elsewhere in Dover there was a big double-digit percentage swing to Cameron, in marginals Labour lost votes. The Tories will also get a bounce from next week – despite the BBC trying desperately to develop a narrative of disillusionment and more defections – which should move the betting prices.

Why take the biggest party bet? Four reasons; Scotland and boundary changes are going to hurt Labour, thirdly the Ashcroft marginal machine is where the real battle is, not in Labour’s heartlands where traditional voters disillusioned by Blair can return to Labour without making a blind bit of difference. Finally, when politics re-starts for real in parliament, Gordon’s big-tent gimmicks will be forgotten in that adversarial atmosphere.

Breaking News

Nick Robinson breathlessly informed us yesterday on his blog that “The BBC has learnt that over the past 24 hours the Labour Party has begun recruiting key staff to work on an election campaign.” Nick is a brilliant investigative reporter isn’t he? Guido read about that on Recess Monkey the day before, who read it in the Guardian.

Guido could be wrong, but something tells him Gordon is bluffing.

GuyNews : Blears Gets a Cookie-Monstering

Andrew Neil gave Blears a policy stealing monstering which went, errrm, right over her head. See report on GuyNews.TV.

Blears Gets a Cookie-Monstering



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Quote of the Day

The FT’s Wolfgang Munchau on the “fake maths” of economic forecasts:

“The truth is that our ability to forecast the future beyond the current quarter is limited… The curse of our time is fake maths. Think of it as fake news for numerically literate intellectuals: it is the abuse of statistics and economic models to peddle one’s own political prejudice… The fakeness of the maths lies in an exaggerated inference. Economic models have their uses, as do opinion polls. They provide information to policymakers and markets. But nobody can see through the fog of the future.”

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