Contrarian? Crazy?

Six months ago the Tories looked set for victory at the next general election, they were the odds on favourites, Labour activists were downhearted. Now things have reversed, Dave is in trouble and can do nothing right. So Guido just put £50 on Betfair on the Tories being the biggest party after the general election.
Why? Well look at the price chart, it appears to have topped out recently with firm support from punters at an implied probability of 40%. Clearly Guido is not the only one who thinks it can’t get any worse for the Tories.

The Ashcroft marginal seats machine is purring away quietly, the SNP control Scotland and seem to be doing well and that will require Labour to divert resources to shore up their crumbling position. The Cameron project’s problems coming now mean they have plenty of time to recover and adjust their approach before the general election. Brown is spinning that the election is around the corner, it ain’t – Labour is bust financially.

Talking of of bust, boom to bust is the other factor. The U.S. economy is spluttering, the property market has some worrying signs, unemployment is as high as it was under Thatcher in 1979*, interest rates are up, inflation is up, government debt is prolific, mortgages payments are ballooning, home repossessions are astonishing and bankruptcies are at a record rate. Brown has not abolished the economic cycle.

So in six months the economic and political picture could, Guido is betting, look very different. Don’t bet against it.

*In 1979 unemployment was 1.4m, in 2007 unemployment is 1.7m, Source: Unemployment ONS Labour Force Survey.




Tip offs: 0709 284 0531
team@Order-order.com

Quote of the Day

Theresa May tells Bercow:

“Mr Speaker-elect, can I congratulate you on your re-election. At least someone got a landslide.”

Sponsors

Guidogram: Sign up

Subscribe to the most succinct 7 days a week daily email read by thousands of Westminster insiders.
Happy Independence Day! Happy Independence Day!
Sun Cleared by Hospital Sun Cleared by Hospital
Exporters Order Books at 29 Year High Exporters Order Books at 29 Year High
Corbyn Refuses to Bow to The Queen Corbyn Refuses to Bow to The Queen
McDonnell Repeatedly Backed Far Left ‘Day of Rage’ Group McDonnell Repeatedly Backed Far Left ‘Day of Rage’ Group
“Soft” and “Hard” Brexit Terms Obsolete “Soft” and “Hard” Brexit Terms Obsolete
Hammond’s “Sound Money” Speech Sadly All Spin Hammond’s “Sound Money” Speech Sadly All Spin
Tommy Robinson Called British Muslims “Enemy Combatants” Tommy Robinson Called British Muslims “Enemy Combatants”
Corbyn Praised at London Hezbollah Rally Corbyn Praised at London Hezbollah Rally
Government Understaffed – Key SpAd Vacancies Up for Grabs Government Understaffed – Key SpAd Vacancies Up for Grabs
Sunday Shows Sunday Shows
Clive Lewis: “Burn Neoliberalism” Clive Lewis: “Burn Neoliberalism”
Corbynista Ultras Involved in Storming Kensington Council Corbynista Ultras Involved in Storming Kensington Council
CCHQ Already Preparing for Next Election CCHQ Already Preparing for Next Election
CCHQ Diverted Resources from ‘Safe Seats’ Tories Lost CCHQ Diverted Resources from ‘Safe Seats’ Tories Lost
Constituent Claims New Labour MP Called Her “Ugly B*tch” Constituent Claims New Labour MP Called Her “Ugly B*tch”
Corbyn vs Blair Corbyn vs Blair
How to Speak Like a Corbynista How to Speak Like a Corbynista