Guido said the by-election in Ealing Southall was a battle for second place between the Tories and the LibDems. If the Ming led LibDems lost ground to the Tories in a high-profile by-election it would destabilise him. LibDems live for by-elections.

The Tories are enthusiastically fighting this campaign and have a strong candidate. Money has now shifted on to Tony Lit, with punters on Betfair now reckoning the Tories have a better chance than the LibDems (who previously held second place at the general election).

If the Tories do well, Ming could face yet another challenging party conference…