Guido has loaded up his Betfair account with cash in the hope that the Newsnight debate could be decisive one way or another in this race. Will try to figure not the merit of the arguments, not even how voters in the Labour electoral college will respond, but how other gamblers will interpret events. Despite having explained this many times, gambling on a beauty contest (like this) is not about figuring out who is the prettiest girl, but who the judges will think is the prettiest girl. Good luck..
Intros hardly move the market.
Head-to-head is more of a side-by-side format.
Lots of flannel on the Iraq issue.
Promises from Harman of an end to spin.
No real move in the betting markets, Paxo demands yes/no answers. Cruddas says no to Trident and charitable schools. So that stakes him out on the left.
Alan Johnson and Blears appear to accept the post-Thatcher Blairite settlement.
Punters start to move against Hain. Johnson closes on Benn.
Paxo bows out with “who would vote for if you weren’t running?” Only Cruddas gives a straight answer (Blears Harman).