Punting on Paxo v the Number Two Wannabees

Guido has loaded up his Betfair account with cash in the hope that the Newsnight debate could be decisive one way or another in this race. Will try to figure not the merit of the arguments, not even how voters in the Labour electoral college will respond, but how other gamblers will interpret events. Despite having explained this many times, gambling on a beauty contest (like this) is not about figuring out who is the prettiest girl, but who the judges will think is the prettiest girl. Good luck..

Intros hardly move the market.

Head-to-head is more of a side-by-side format.

Lots of flannel on the Iraq issue.

Promises from Harman of an end to spin.

No real move in the betting markets, Paxo demands yes/no answers. Cruddas says no to Trident and charitable schools. So that stakes him out on the left.

Alan Johnson and Blears appear to accept the post-Thatcher Blairite settlement.

Punters start to move against Hain. Johnson closes on Benn.

Paxo bows out with “who would vote for if you weren’t running?” Only Cruddas gives a straight answer (Blears Harman).

ENDS

Let the spinning begin…




Tip offs: 0709 284 0531
team@Order-order.com

Quote of the Day

Jo Swinson on Chris Rennard…

“Vince — and Tim before him — have repeatedly, publicly said Rennard is not welcome anywhere near their frontbench team, even as an adviser. I remain deeply frustrated that he was not expelled from the party through its disciplinary process. It just feels wrong, and I do not want Lord Rennard to continue as a member of the party. As far as I am concerned, he is not welcome.”

Sponsors

Guidogram: Sign up

Subscribe to the most succinct 7 days a week daily email read by thousands of Westminster insiders.
Sunday Show Highlights Sunday Show Highlights
Royal Mail’s Tweets Deliver Truth About Nationalisation Royal Mail’s Tweets Deliver Truth About Nationalisation
Jez “Doesn’t Do Dinners” Jez “Doesn’t Do Dinners”
New Tory Slogan: Building a Britain Fit for The Future New Tory Slogan: Building a Britain Fit for The Future
Unilad Deleted From Facebook Unilad Deleted From Facebook
Disgraced Gay Times Editor Is Labour Member Disgraced Gay Times Editor Is Labour Member
Yasmin Alibhai-Brown: “I’d Rather Be Mugabe Than May” Yasmin Alibhai-Brown: “I’d Rather Be Mugabe Than May”
Corbynista Rulebook Saves Lansman’s NEC Dream Corbynista Rulebook Saves Lansman’s NEC Dream
70 Million Reasons BuzzFeed Won’t Go Public 70 Million Reasons BuzzFeed Won’t Go Public
Sun Coffee Run to Broadcasting House Sun Coffee Run to Broadcasting House
Teething Problems for Salmond’s RT Show Teething Problems for Salmond’s RT Show
Hammond to Deliver “Real Action” on Housing in Budget Hammond to Deliver “Real Action” on Housing in Budget
Dods Shard Offices Infested With Maggots Dods Shard Offices Infested With Maggots
Nelson’s Back Nelson’s Back
Nasreen Khan Resigns Nasreen Khan Resigns
Young Liberals Condemn Cable For Defending Rennard Young Liberals Condemn Cable For Defending Rennard
Brexodus Was Bogus Brexodus Was Bogus
McDonnell Now Sure There Won’t Be a Run on The Pound McDonnell Now Sure There Won’t Be a Run on The Pound
Shadow Minister: “I Don’t Know” Why Corbyn Hasn’t Suspended Dent Coad Shadow Minister: “I Don’t Know” Why Corbyn Hasn’t Suspended Dent Coad
Byline Outs Russian Troll But It’s a Security Guard from Glasgow Byline Outs Russian Troll But It’s a Security Guard from Glasgow