On the weekend the YouGov poll in the Sunday Times
emphasised the electoral liability that Gordon is to Labour. When asked to choose between Cameron and Brown the voters prefer Dave more than when asked to choose between Labour and the Tories.
Today Populus in the Times
* re-confirms the finding, when asked to choose between the parties it has the Tories 4% ahead, when asked to choose between the leaders the Tories are 10% ahead – exactly the same result as YouGov.
Putting the crude numbers into the electoral calculus translates that differential, the Brown Deficit, into 60 lost Labour marginal seats. Now you know why Guido says it is lemming-like to dispatch Blair for Brown…
*How the hell Peter Riddell and Philip Webster can spin the poll as positive for Brown is beyond Guido. What people will do for access. The headline is “A Bounce for Brown“
. Maybe they mean a lemming-like bounce, with people even less likely to vote Labour when Brown is leader.