The First Post’s “The Mole” has tipped Mike Smithson at PoliticalBetting.com that he is about to break a story. The Mole is firmly in the Brown camp. Punters have shifted money onto an early bath for Blair with speculation of a date being leaked. We have had this before with The Sun even announcing a date on the front page.

Nick Robinson has been weighing up Blair’s semantic choices. His PMQs answer to Cameron this week implied that he had not made up his mind when to go. Did he just say that to wind up the Brownites?

Most think he’ll make an announcement after May 3. Presumably he’ll wait until after returning from Stormont on May 8 to bask in the afterglow of perhaps achieving peace in the six counties. (We should not quibble that it is a strange peace that sees the two most extreme parties in power.) So it is possible that he could go see the Queen and tell her of his intentions sometime in early May.

For political punters whether or not it is before or after May 13 is crucial. The leadership process takes 7 weeks. Bets on the timing of his leaving hinge on the date he is no longer leader of the Labour party. If the process starts on May 12 bets will be settled for June, if May 13 bets will be settled for July. Knife edge…

UPDATE : The Mole’s big “exclusive” this morning is the claim that Blair will say he is going on May 9. Could be… but never say never with Blair and our Brownite Mole might be indulging in wishful thinking.