Iain Dale suggested that Blair might go this week. Guido told Iain when he saw him on Monday that it is was “just as well he doesn’t gamble”.

The word from Whitehall is that it is July, leaving the rules-required seven weeks for the leadership / coronation of Gordon Brown in time for the Labour party conference.

Brown plans to announce his great renewal programme – throwing policy bones to the left and right in order to give himself a poll bounce. “New New Labour” will be launched.

The rumoured clearing of diaries by key players backs up the July thesis, it is also the last possible date that Blair can cling on until if he is to let Gordon have it in time for the party conference. Will there be a contest? If the Blairites feel pissed off enough, since Reid is a busted flush, Hutton at above 100/1 is my trading bet. He has been careful not to rule himself out. For those of you who don’t gamble or understand what Guido means by a trading bet, it is a bet placed in expectation that the price will move and the bet can be reversed at a profit. If Hutton stands his odds will be slashed to at least the teens. You will then be able to lay the bet you put on above 100/1 at a tidy profit on Betfair. Good luck punters…