When Blairite lickspittles like Sion Simon and Chris Bryant with an eye on their future careers shift their allegiances to Brown the trouble is serious. But this is not the tipping point, something is missing. Brown is silent, no cabinet minister has resigned, Blair is looking into the abyss but he has not reached the tipping point.

Guido has been studying the betting markets, looking at the next Chancellor bet, the joint favourites are Ed Balls and Alastair Darling. John Reid’s price looks too long, if he stands against Brown and loses marginally he will have a strong claim to the job. The Alan Johnson price also looks to long for both Chancellor and PM. Alan Johnson seems just more human and normal than the others.