Guido detects that ConservativeHome.Com panel methodology has some bias, Letwin on 12% and Frankie Maude on 6% seems to suggest that the poll is showing evidence of wing-nuttery. Letwin & Maude are hate-figures for many Tory recidivists and the wing-nuts seem to have their opinions over represented in this poll. As handy and easy as online polling is, it does have a self-selecting methodological flaw, which needs a corrective filter. In this poll what is interesting is the trend rather than the absolute figures. Bearing in mind that the mass membership rejected Davis and Fox and went with the modernising candidate it seems suspect that they now allegedly reject Dave’s fellow modernisers. The low rating for Osborne seems right, Guido meets no-one with a high rating for him and he is out-gunned by Gordon, his job should be swopped with Hague, sooner rather than later. Over to you Tim.
Fickle lot the Tory membership, they voted 2 to 1 for Dave against Davis, but now give Basher Davis a net approval rating of 84%. Obviously he has been lucky with the headlines, Clarke’s demise had nothing to do with him and everything to do with policy failure at the Home Office. Hague is the next darling of the membership, despite keeping a low profile. Liam Fox at Defence has become a stealth shadow, almost undetectable by media imaging systems, yet is the third most popular shadow minister.