Gambling on LibDems

Lunchtime yesterday somebody emailed (anonymously) poll results from Populus. Guido posted them here and was met with a barrage of comment abuse.

“ha ha. Egg on yer face Guido”

“nice job on the attempt to push Hughes out based on the spurious poll of 50 candidates which was already on Huhne’s website when you posted it.

Hope it made you a few quid.”

Of course the More4 poll turned out to exactly reflect the numbers as posted here five hours earlier. Guido does, like a lot of political bloggers, gamble heavily on politics. We “eat what we kill”, usually after we blog it. Guido momentum trades Betfair using the Beauty Contest Principle – you bet not on who is the prettiest contestant, but on who the judges will think is the prettiest contestant. A sense of objectivity about the subject is helpful, it is very helpful to calculating gamblers that partisan types bet on their hopes rather than good sense, hence a 10% return is still available to punters willing to tie up their capital laying Hughes to win.

Incidentally, Guido is “all green”* on Betfair unless Mark Oaten or Simon Hughes wins.
*Will show a profit whatever outcome.




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Michael Crick on Safe Seats:

“In effect, new MPs are being elected day by day now, as, amid huge secrecy, small cabals of party bigwigs pick candidates for safe seats.”

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