Have the LibDems Become Important?

I asked this not just because Guido has paid his subs, (still no membership card Cowley Street), but because political punters seem to think so. Mike Smithson reports the current mid-points as CON 273.4: LAB 289.5: LD 52.4 seats. The LibDems effectively holding the balance of power.

Hence Cameron’s outreach to the LibDems, the smart money says without them he won’t be PM. Here things don’t look so good for Cameron. Ming is a fellow-traveller with Gordon Brown, literally. With neighbouring constituencies they often amiably travel north to Scotland together. Ming is claiming, not necessarily convincingly, that he will keep the party to the left. But that will only increase the expected loss of English seats to the Tories. Hughes as leader would have the same effect, perhaps costing the LibDems even more English seats and possibly causing a few Orange Book MPs to defect to the Tories. Huhne, improbable as his victory is, would probably be more amenable to supporting the Tories, which seems to be the sub-text when he emphasises his Euro experience of working with other parties.

So Brownites will be hoping for Ming to win, Cameroonies are torn between wanting Hughes to win and divide the LibDems plus undermining them in Tory target constituencies, or Huhne to win and increase the likelihood of the LibDems supporting a Tory administration. If you are a bullish Tory Hughes looks like the best option, if you are more cautious Huhne. Of course if you think Ming is lying about his leftie agenda, and is a Tory in yellow…

Specialbets expects the LibDems to vote with their heads rather than their hearts.




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Michael Crick on Safe Seats:

“In effect, new MPs are being elected day by day now, as, amid huge secrecy, small cabals of party bigwigs pick candidates for safe seats.”

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