What are the Real Odds on Ming?

Dr Crippen draws our attention to the real prognosis for sixty-somethings like Ming Cambell surviving Non-Hodgkin’s Lymphoma, “the 5-year survival rate for men aged 60-69 with Non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma is 45% in England and Wales 1991-95” (Cancer Survival, National Statistics).

Dr Crippen and Guido suspect it is, sadly, a little bit of optimistic of the Ming spinners to claim “complete remission”. 45% survive is the acturial hard reality of the situation. More fatal to Ming’s leadership ambitions will be his performance on Wednesday at PMQs. Any repeat of the nervous performance of last week will be terminal for his political life. Guido is consistently told that Clegg as well as Ed Davey both wish to be relieved from their commitment to Ming made when his coronation looked likely.

Many LibDem activists faced with the existing leadership candidates are thinking none of the above. If proud Ming mangles his performance at PMQs again, it seems possible that he may cite health reasons and withdraw his candidature, rather than the face the probable humiliation which he looks unexpectedly likely to suffer. Expect Clegg to declare in those circumstances, despite his prior protestations about experience over youth in the Indy. Two more PMQs remain before nominations close on Wednesday week at 4pm. Clegg and Davey would face no problems getting the requisite nominations in the event that Ming falters.




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