Alan Duncan is quoted in the Indy as being against any rule changes removing the membership vote. He is a patron of the grassroots right-wing organising faction Conservative Way Forward (the group that hosted Howard Flight’s career curtailing speech), and the right is most favoured under the current system, so make your own calculations. Michael Portillo has effectively endorsed Duncan as “the most coherent advocate of change”, if Francis Maude also backs Duncan its possible he’ll be the moderniser’s candidate. The Indy has profiled him today.
David Davis is without doubt going to be the Thatcherite candidate, the moderniser candidate could theoretically be a unity candidate from the leftish or libertarian wings of the party since they both share a socially liberal agenda. How Fox positions himself tomorrow will be interesting.