Gored: Psephology and the Popular Vote

What are the New Labour high command worried about? They are as Campbell says home and dry, 1 in 10 voters swinging to the LibDems will not let the Tories in, perhaps 1 in 3 voters switching might do it, but that would be the biggest upset since Churchill lost.

So is it getting a sub-100 majority that they fear? Yes, that would make life complicated, but not insurmountable. It would make it difficult for the Blairites to push through the choice agenda. A good enough reason for conscientious Labour lefties to stay at home methinks, even ignoring Iraq.

What really worries Blair, Milburn and Campbell is not losing the election, that is not possible – unless Blair is caught on video in bed with Michael Jackson and an underage monkey going backwards not forwards. No, what really worries the Blairites is the Al Gore scenario, which is not so implausible. Whereas the first past the post system so favours Labour that they can’t really lose in terms of seats, they could still lose in terms of the percentage of the popular vote.

If enough Labour voters stay at home or switch to the Liberals, the Tories might realistically get a bigger percentage of the popular vote (assuming they have got their own vote out with a combination of dog whistle issues and a popular desire to wipe the smirk off Blair’s face.)

The Tories could get 32% of the vote, Labour 31% and the LibDems 25%. Leaving Blair arguably with no popular mandate, but a working majority of 60+ seats. Its not that far-fetched, Howard would scream blue murder, Blair would have to resign in favour of Brown.

So what is a conscientious leftie to do? If you want Brown, stay at home. If you want to halt the New Labour project, stay at home. If you oppose the war, vote LibDem or Green. If you endorse the war, vote New Labour.



Tip offs: 0709 284 0531
team@Order-order.com

Quote of the Day

John McDonnell does a funny:

“I’m told there are a group of KGB colonels who are suing The Sun for associating themselves with us.”

Sponsors

Guidogram: Sign up

Subscribe to the most succinct 7 days a week daily email read by thousands of Westminster insiders.
Mr Toynbee’s Fine Dining Brass Neck Mr Toynbee’s Fine Dining Brass Neck
Labour and Communists Hold “Co-Operation” Meeting Labour and Communists Hold “Co-Operation” Meeting
Camilla Tominey on Labour’s Smears Hypocrisy Camilla Tominey on Labour’s Smears Hypocrisy
Dugher vs Skwawkbox Dugher vs Skwawkbox
Remembering the STB Remembering the STB
Even Remainers Think BBC Is Anti-Brexit Even Remainers Think BBC Is Anti-Brexit
Millions of Students Affected by Lecturers Strike Millions of Students Affected by Lecturers Strike
Corbyn Considering Backing Customs Union Corbyn Considering Backing Customs Union
CIA Files Reveal US Spies Kept Tabs on Corbyn CIA Files Reveal US Spies Kept Tabs on Corbyn
Cabinet Sub-Committee Committed to Divergence and Taking Back Control of Laws Cabinet Sub-Committee Committed to Divergence and Taking Back Control of Laws
Stasi Files: Corbyn’s Peace Group Infiltrated by Spies Stasi Files: Corbyn’s Peace Group Infiltrated by Spies
Boris on Corbyn’s “B*llocks” Boris on Corbyn’s “B*llocks”
Read: Stasi File on Labour Party Read: Stasi File on Labour Party
LISTEN: Labour MPs Knowingly Meet Foreign Spies Every Day LISTEN: Labour MPs Knowingly Meet Foreign Spies Every Day
BBC Website Finally Reports Corbyn Spy Story… And Attacks “Press Barons” BBC Website Finally Reports Corbyn Spy Story… And Attacks “Press Barons”
Tory ERG MPs Remind May of Her Commitment to Take Back Control of Laws and Trade Tory ERG MPs Remind May of Her Commitment to Take Back Control of Laws and Trade
Aaronovitch Talking S*it Aaronovitch Talking S*it
Live In Truth: Corbyn vs Havel Live In Truth: Corbyn vs Havel
Watson Now Opposes Airing Lurid Historic Claims Against MPs Watson Now Opposes Airing Lurid Historic Claims Against MPs
Green: I Wasn’t Inappropriate to Kate Maltby Green: I Wasn’t Inappropriate to Kate Maltby