If, as many think, election day is May 5 we have a mere 100 days to go from today. Guido will be campaigning for none of the above as voting only encourages them. I am hoping for a less than 50% turnout, or at the very least for non-voters to be the largest party.

Mainstream opinion is that Blair will walk it, but it may not be the pushover everyone thinks. Mike Smithson over at politicalbetting.com points out that “The polls, however, are nothing like as clear-cut as they were four years ago. At this point in 2001 ICM had Labour at 47%, the Tories on 32% and the Lib Dems on 15%. – a spread of 32% between the three parties. The weekend’s YouGov poll had Labour at 34% – more than a quarter down on last time; the Tories just one point down but the Lib Dems on 25%. Instead of a 32% spread there is one of just nine points.”



Guido is suspicious of the “we’re doomed” leak from Howard’s election guru Lynton Crosby – this is the man who got the Howard of Oz in to power by telling all that he had no chance – remember that.