Over at politicalbetting.com the shrewd Mike Smithson has a slightly different take on yesterday’s ICM poll giving Labour an 8% lead. He has drilled down into the data and discovered that “the equivalent of nearly a quarter of those surveyed who said they had voted Labour last time were not going to do so again.”

The Wizard of Oz, Lynton Crosby, the man the Tories have hired to help them win the next general election, will no doubt be reflecting on that. He wants to de-motivate disillusioned Blair voters to such an extent that they stay at home. Thus Howard is told to keep repeating the “you can’t trust Blair” mantra because some Tory wonk told me their research says it hits home particularly with Labour voters. I still wouldn’t bet the ranch on the Tories winning just yet – Mike did also bet on a Kerry win….